General election: Portsmouth North seat a huge target for Labour after Penny Mordaunt was predicted to lose her seat in YouGov poll

YouGov has released its projection for the 2024 general election, forecasting Labour to win 422 seats with the Conservatives retaining only 140. The MRP projection model, based on data from 58,000 people, suggests the Tories are on track for their largest loss since 1906.

After the 2019 general election, the Conservatives had 365 seats while Labour was left with 203. The national picture is reflected in Portsmouth, with Labour expected to secure a comfortable majority in Portsmouth South and a close contest in Portsmouth North. Labour’s Amanda Martin is projected to gain Penny Mordaunt’s constituency, with a vote share nearly five per cent higher than the House of Commons leader.

However, a spokesman for Ms Mordaunt criticised using national polling data to predict individual seat results as “something acknowledged by YouGov themselves”. He pointed towards a recent poll undertaken by Techne which showed her having a four percentage point lead over Labour – the poll surveyed more than 1,000 people in the north of the city.

He added: “The poll confirms what we are hearing on the doorstep, that Penny is an incredibly popular and respected local MP, who has a track record of standing up for the people of Portsmouth and for our nation. They know that she is Pompey through and through. She has never taken any votes for granted and worked hard bringing in millions of investments to regenerate our city. If people want that to continue they need to vote for her on July 4.”

However, Amanda Martin said she speaks with residents every day about the “change our country needs and how Labour will deliver it”. “No vote in the election has been cast yet and I’m working hard for every vote. There is a long way to go until July 4 and we will take nothing for granted.

“Portsmouth is where all the people I love live, it will be the honour of my life to be elected as the MP for my home. There will no doubt be many polls saying different things between now and polling day. I’ll continue to be out day and night listening and showing what that change can look like here.”